Polka
Markets
SCOM

Will Safaricom (SCOM) hit KES 25 before Dec 31?

KES 610k VolEconomyEnds Dec 31
01234567890123456789%chance that Yes will win
Yes29%
No71%

Resolves YES if SCOM trades at or above KES 25.00 at any close on the NSE before Dec 31, 2026.

Oracle source: Nairobi Securities Exchange daily price list

Discussion 3

[YES @ 29%]2h

Inflation prints have been soft three months running. The data is pointing one way only.

[NO @ 71%]1h

Shilling pressure from the Eurobond repayment says otherwise. Don't sleep on it.

[YES @ 29%]48m

Reserves are at 4.8 months of import cover. Plenty of buffer.

[NO @ 71%]5h

Small position as a hedge. Implied probabilities look too stretched for me.

6h

Volume spiked 3x after the morning headline. Watching closely.