Markets
Market Closed · Payouts Pending
Awaiting final resolution
⛽
Will EPRA cut Nairobi super petrol below KES 170 in November?
KES 380k VolEconomyEnds Nov 14
01234567890123456789%chance that Yes will win
YesNo
Live
Yes57%Closed
No43%Closed
Resolves YES if EPRA's November 2026 pump price review sets Nairobi Super Petrol below KES 170.00 per litre.
Oracle source: EPRA monthly pump price notice
Discussion 3
[YES @ 57%]2h
Inflation prints have been soft three months running. The data is pointing one way only.
[NO @ 43%]1h
Shilling pressure from the Eurobond repayment says otherwise. Don't sleep on it.
[YES @ 57%]48m
Reserves are at 4.8 months of import cover. Plenty of buffer.
[NO @ 43%]5h
Small position as a hedge. Implied probabilities look too stretched for me.
6h
Volume spiked 3x after the morning headline. Watching closely.