Polka
Markets

Will Bitcoin close above $120k on Oct 31?

KES 1.7M VolCryptoEnds Oct 31
01234567890123456789%chance that Yes will win
Yes47%
No53%

Resolves YES if the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at 23:59 UTC on Oct 31 is above 120,000.

Oracle source: Binance BTC/USDT spot

Discussion 3

[YES @ 47%]2h

Inflation prints have been soft three months running. The data is pointing one way only.

[NO @ 53%]1h

Shilling pressure from the Eurobond repayment says otherwise. Don't sleep on it.

[YES @ 47%]48m

Reserves are at 4.8 months of import cover. Plenty of buffer.

[NO @ 53%]5h

Small position as a hedge. Implied probabilities look too stretched for me.

6h

Volume spiked 3x after the morning headline. Watching closely.