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Will the short rains start in Nairobi before Nov 1?

KES 210k VolWeatherEnds Nov 1

01234567890123456789%chance that Yes will win

YesNo

Live

Outcome graph

Yes68%

No32%

Resolves YES if KMD declares onset of the OND short rains season for Nairobi before Nov 1, 2026.

Oracle source: Kenya Meteorological Department bulletin

[YES @ 68%]2h

Inflation prints have been soft three months running. The data is pointing one way only.

[NO @ 32%]1h

Shilling pressure from the Eurobond repayment says otherwise. Don't sleep on it.

[YES @ 68%]48m

Reserves are at 4.8 months of import cover. Plenty of buffer.

[NO @ 32%]5h

Small position as a hedge. Implied probabilities look too stretched for me.

Volume spiked 3x after the morning headline. Watching closely.